Reduced rainfall may be experienced in the coming months as the El Niño phenomenon continues to rapidly strengthen and may persist until the first half of 2027, according to the PAGASA.
Ana Solis, chief of PAGASA’s Climate Impact Assessment and Prediction Section, said warming ocean temperatures are driving the further intensification of El Niño.
“Base sa ating monitoring at assessment, a strong El Niño is present in the tropical Pacific,” Solis said. “Previously po, sinusundan natin ‘yung monitoring ng PAGASA, moderate to strong. Ngayon po ay strong El Niño na, and it could be continued until the first half of 2027.”
With this development, several areas may experience dry spells, dry conditions, and possible drought beginning October 2026.
Based on PAGASA projections, Administrator Nathaniel Servando said 45 provinces may experience dry conditions, while eight provinces may face drought.
“This situation needs to be taken seriously, particularly because of its potential impacts on rainfall and water resources,” Servando said.
EL NIÑO LIKENED TO STAGES OF FEVER
To better explain the intensity of this year’s El Niño, Solis compared the phenomenon to the stages of a fever.
“Sabi nga po natin: sinat, lagnat, trangkaso, convulsion. Weak, moderate, strong, very strong. So ‘yung nararanasan ng init na temperatura natin is convulsion or very strong El Niño,” Solis said.
She explained that just like a convulsion that requires immediate attention, a very strong El Niño must be addressed promptly as its impacts may worsen.
Solis added that a prolonged water shortage due to a very strong El Niño could significantly affect the country’s agriculture.
“Hindi po kami nananakot. Hindi po ganoon ‘yung alarming na sinasabi natin, but this could happen kasi, based on historical records since 1950, 75% ang tsansa na ito ay malalampasan ang historical El Niño episodes,” Solis said.
Servando, for his part, said PAGASA has been issuing advisories on the potential impacts of a strong El Niño as early as May, even before the onset of the southwest monsoon or habagat.
With the looming El Niño and expected reduced rainfall, PAGASA urged the public to practice water conservation as the country may experience dry conditions and drought in the coming months.
