Philippine inflation surged to 7.2% year-on-year in April 2026, the fastest pace in more than three years.
Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation (RCBC) chief economist Michael Ricafort on Tuesday, May 5, attributed the acceleration largely to the ongoing war in the Middle East, which has sent fuel and commodity prices sharply higher.
The last time inflation ran faster was in March 2023, when it posted 7.6%.
Ricafort said the Iran conflict, which erupted on February 28, has driven up crude oil prices and triggered cascading increases in transport fares, food prices, and utility rates.
The peso’s slide to a record low of 61.75 against the US dollar on April 30 compounded the pressure, raising import costs and adding to overall inflation.
Rice prices have also climbed, Ricafort noted, partly due to the rice import ban in effect since September 2025, while the looming threat of El Niño risks pushing food prices even higher in the months ahead.
“Inflation could still accelerate in the coming months after the continued increase in world and local crude oil/fuel prices, as well as any continuation or lagged effects of second-round inflation effects,” Ricafort said.
He added that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas may be compelled to raise interest rates if inflation remains well above its 2%-4% target, similar to its response during the Russia-Ukraine war four years ago.
The government, meanwhile, has relied on targeted subsidies for transport workers, fisherfolk, and farmers to temper the pass-through of higher fuel costs to the general public, with full-year 2026 inflation now estimated at 5.5% to 6.5% or higher should the conflict drag on.
