Fitch Ratings has warned that a prolonged El Niño could heighten the risk of economic disruptions worldwide.
“The formation of an El Niño weather phenomenon that is set to persist into early 2027 raises the risk of economic disruption in a range of sovereigns,” Fitch Ratings said.
In a report, the credit rating agency said the environmental effects of El Niño could weigh on economic growth, particularly in vulnerable countries.
“Fitch is unlikely to link rating actions directly to El Niño unless the effects are clearly reflected in credit metrics, but related environmental stresses could intensify fiscal, growth, inflation and external liquidity pressures for sovereigns that are more vulnerable,” it added.
Meanwhile, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said El Niño conditions are already present in the tropical Pacific, with more than an 80% chance of developing into a full-blown event between June and August.
“In fact, based on projections from different models, it may strengthen into a strong El Niño during the October, November, December season, and possibly last until the early part of 2027,” PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando said.
Servando explained that El Niño could bring below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry conditions, water shortages, and adverse impacts on key sectors such as agriculture, energy, and health.
“While these impacts may still be months away, the time to prepare is now. The purpose of this advisory actually is not to cause alarm but to encourage early action,” he said.
