As many as 49 provinces across the Philippines are expected to record below-normal rainfall by October as an intensifying El Niño episode takes hold—and the dry spell may persist well into early 2027, the country’s top science official warned Saturday.
Science Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. said state weather bureau PAGASA is already tracking the warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that drives El Niño, with a 92% probability that the phenomenon will emerge as early as June and strengthen considerably over the following months.
“Merong 92% probability na ang El Niño ay lilitaw magmula sa buwan ng June, July, August, at mag-pe-persist ito until early part ng 2027,” the chief of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) said in an interview on DZRH’s Special on Saturday on May 23.
The event is forecast to begin as a weak El Niño before escalating. By September and October, Solidum said conditions could reach strong status — with a 30% chance of tipping into a “very strong” episode between October and January, when ocean temperatures could exceed two degrees Celsius above normal.
“By September, October, November 2026, ay magiging strong siya,” he said.
PAGASA’s provincial rainfall outlook tracks the deterioration month by month. Eleven provinces are expected to record below-normal rainfall by July, rising to 17 by August. Though the southwest monsoon temporarily buffers the impact in September, the number surges to 49 provinces by October — with conditions worsening further into November, when some areas may record way-below-normal levels, meaning less than 40% of average rainfall.
Solidum said the monsoon season masks El Niño’s effects during the third quarter, as habagat winds carry moisture from the Indian Ocean. The full brunt of the dry spell, he warned, arrives in the final months of the year.
“Sa dulo na lang ng taon natin talaga makikita ‘yung matinding epekto,” he said.
He was careful to note that a stronger El Niño does not guarantee severe weather disruptions outright—but that the likelihood of such impacts rises as the event intensifies.
The government has an existing El Niño Task Force, Solidum confirmed, with inter-agency coordination already underway between DOST-PAGASA, the Department of Agriculture, and the Department of Energy through regular Climate Outlook briefings. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council is also reviewing contingency actions.
Solidum urged households, farmers, and local governments to act early—adjusting planting schedules, conserving water, and exploring alternative irrigation sources—before conditions worsen toward yearend.
