The world is likely to exceed the 1.5 degree Celsius global warming threshold by 2050 under a business-as-usual scenario, a Filipino climate scientist and member of the Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned Saturday, stressing that what was once theoretical projection has now become confirmed scientific observation.
Manila Observatory Executive Director Fr. Jose Ramon “Jett” Villarin issued the warning in an interview on DZRH News program Special on Saturday on June 20, nearly two decades after his IPCC team received the Nobel Peace Prize alongside former US Vice President Al Gore in 2007.
“In the next 20 years, we’re actually looking at 2050. Kung business as usual, lalampas na tayo sa 1.5 degrees. Dati noong 2015, nag-set sila ng parang cap na sana hindi umangat ng 1.5 degrees. Nasa 1.1 o 1.2 na nga tayo. Palagay ng mga siyentista, pagdating ng 2050 ay nalampasan na natin ang 1.5 degrees,” Villarin said.
He said the science behind global warming has fundamentally shifted in nature since the 1990s, when questions about the effects of rising carbon dioxide levels were largely theoretical and speculative.
“Dati kasi haka-haka at naghuhula lang noong 1990s. In fact, it was a theoretical question. Sabi nila, ‘Ano kayang mangyari kung madoble ang carbon dioxide? Aangat ba ang init?’ Ngayon nakikita natin lalo na sa karagatan na umiinit,” Villarin said.
Villarin warned that the world’s oceans store enormous amounts of heat energy that is not immediately visible, and that this stored heat will eventually be released—a slow-building risk he said deserves far more public attention than it currently receives.
He said there remains hope to avoid a point of no return, given that the world remains relatively early in the warming process at 1.1 to 1.2 degrees, but emphasized that the window —or “runway”—for meaningful intervention is narrowing.
“Gusto kong isipin at maniwala na may pag-asa pa, lalong-lalo na nasa simula pa lang tayo. 1.1, 1.2 degrees pa lang tayo, kaya may panahon pa para ibaba ito. ‘Wag sana tayong dumating doon sa point of no return,” Villarin said.
