A 66-year-old study by American researchers has been making rounds online in recent weeks after its mathematical projections pointed to Friday, November 13, 2026, as a supposed “doomsday” date for humanity.
The paper, published in the journal Science in November 1960, was written by Heinz von Foerster and his colleagues Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot of the University of Illinois.
Using historical demographic data spanning two millennia, the researchers argued that human population growth did not follow a simple exponential pattern. Instead, they examined how social communication, technological advances, and human cooperation contributed to accelerating population growth.
In other words, the date now being described online as the “end of the world” was actually derived from a mathematical equation projecting that the global population would approach infinity.
THE MATHEMATICS OF DOOMSDAY
While biological populations in nature are eventually limited by environmental factors, food scarcity, and competition, the researchers hypothesized that human populations behave differently because of their ability to communicate and cooperate.
Rather than having productivity decline as population density increases, technological advances and mass communication allow humans to develop more efficient systems and improve productivity.
Based on their mathematical model, the researchers projected that the human population would approach infinity on November 13, 2026, a date that happens to fall on Friday the 13th.
However, this mathematical projection does not mean that humanity would literally disappear or that the world would end on that date. It represents a theoretical population-growth singularity under the assumptions of their model.
THE RESEARCHERS’ RECOMMENDATIONS IN THE 1960s
It is important to note that the researchers never established November 13, 2026, as a scientifically verified date for the end of the world.
Instead, their study raised concerns about the sustainability of unchecked population growth and the need for humanity to establish mechanisms to regulate it.
The authors argued that stabilizing the global population would require cutting birth rates roughly in half or limiting average family sizes to just over two children to match the prevailing human death rate.
Their findings highlighted the potential consequences of unchecked population growth, warning that humanity could eventually face severe pressure on its resources.
“Our great-great-grandchildren will not starve,” the researchers wrote. “They will be squeezed to death.”
WHAT MODERN-DAY DATA TELL US
History professor Alan MacEachern of Western University described the study and its doomsday interpretation as “outlandish.”
MacEachern noted that the paper gained renewed attention because of its mathematical equation and underlying research, which had received careful and sustained scientific attention.
The study was regularly cited in subsequent research, and its population projections appeared surprisingly accurate until around 1993, when actual global population figures began falling behind its projected trajectory.
Looking at present-day figures, global birth rates are now roughly half of what they were when the paper was published in 1960.
Rather than heading toward an infinite upward spike, the United Nations projects that the global population will peak at approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before stabilizing and eventually declining.
While the world’s population continues to grow, the pace of growth has slowed considerably.
So, despite the viral claims surrounding Friday, November 13, 2026, the world is not coming to an end. The date simply marks the theoretical endpoint of a mathematical model developed more than six decades ago.
NOT THE FIRST PREDICTION OF THE END OF THE WORLD
The November 13, 2026, doomsday claim is far from the first prediction of its kind.
As early as 1910, fears of an impending apocalypse spread as Earth prepared to pass through the tail of Halley’s Comet.
Newspaper reports at the time warned that the comet’s tail contained poisonous gases that could potentially “wipe out all life,” sparking fears of a global catastrophe.
However, when Earth passed through the comet’s tail, no such disaster occurred.
More than a century later, another doomsday prediction gained worldwide attention on December 21, 2012, when the Mayan calendar’s 5,125-year cycle came to an end.
The date was widely interpreted by some as a prediction of the world’s end. However, December 21, 2012, passed without the anticipated catastrophe.
