After months of relentless flooding in Metro Manila and Luzon from the southwest monsoon, the Philippines is now facing the arrival of one of the strongest El Niño events on record, and if any typhoon forms during the El Niño period, it could reach typhoon to super typhoon strength because the weather pattern intensifies tropical cyclones that do manage to develop.
PAGASA-NCR Regional Services Office Chief Lorenzo Moron made the warning in an interview on DZRH News program The Situation Report on Friday, September 11, explaining that the latest model projections on El Niño just as Metro Manila continues to experience flooding from the habagat.
Moron said climate models are now showing strong to very strong El Niño conditions with a high degree of certainty, and that the current episode could be one of the strongest ever to affect the Philippines.
“Nagpapakita yung mga model na strong to very strong, medyo mataas na yung certainty ngayon ng El Niño. In fact, one of the strongest talaga that will ever hit,” the PAGASA-NCR chief said.
Moron said Visayas and Mindanao are already experiencing the effects, with those regions suffering from excessive heat, drought, and below-normal rainfall while Luzon continues to be battered by the monsoon, illustrating how El Niño affects different parts of the country at different times.
The PAGASA-NCR chief said El Niño does not necessarily mean intense heat but rather a significant reduction in rainfall compared to normal levels, though temperatures may feel more extreme during the amihan season that follows the habagat.
He said El Niño typically reduces the number of typhoon formations, but those that do form during El Niño conditions tend to be significantly stronger because the pattern shifts wind directions in ways that can intensify developing storms.
“Pinapalakas niya yung habagat, pinapalakas niya rin yung bagyo kung nagkakaroon ng formation ng bagyo,” Moron said, noting that Typhoon Ondoy struck on September 26 and Typhoon Yolanda in November 2013, both during El Niño periods.
