The City of Manila will be under water should sea levels rise by two meters, and if society fails to act quickly to mitigate the impact of climate change.
Vast portions of the capital, already prone to flooding, could disappear beneath the waves along with other coastal and low-lying communities across the country, based on the risk map by Climate Central.
In an interview on DZRH News’ Special on Saturday on August 23, Mines and Geosciences Bureau senior geologist Michelle Mendoza said Manila’s geography makes it one of the most vulnerable areas in Metro Manila.
“Based sa aming studies… Manila area ang identified na may lowest level of ground within the Metro Manila. Ang sinasabi nila na Manila is sinking, based sa studies namin, yes it’s true,” Mendoza explained, noting that both natural processes and human activities are accelerating the city’s sinking.
“Metro Manila, particularly the Manila area, is sinking due to natural processes… but human-initiated actions are making the situation worse,” she warned.
Metro Manila, Mendoza said, functions as a natural catchment basin.
“Lahat ng tubig na nanggagaling sa upstream areas sa mga matataas na lugar surrounding Metro Manila… dito bumabagsak sa NCR. Kahit hindi dinevelop at naging urban area ang NCR, naturally flood-prone na talaga tayo,” Mendoza said.
This makes the metropolis highly vulnerable not only to extreme rainfall but also to sea-level rise linked to climate change.
Manila’s current struggles with flooding offer a glimpse of what such a future could look like.
On Friday, August 22, many areas of the city were submerged after just a few hours of morning downpour. The water lingered long after the rains stopped, worsened by high tide, and it was only by late afternoon that floodwaters across the city began to recede.
If water levels rise by two meters, the consequences could be catastrophic. Not only will large portions of the city—including business districts, residential areas, schools, and hospitals—be under water, but millions of residents would be displaced.
Mendoza pointed out that the mix of sinking land and rising seas leaves little buffer for Manila, where infrastructure is already under pressure.
The threat is not limited to the capital.
Climate Central’s risk map also shows that Malabon City, Valenzuela City, and parts of Bulacan such as Marilao and Malolos are at risk of being submerged.
In Pampanga, coastal communities could also disappear, while northern cities like Dagupan and Aparri, and portions of Camarines Sur in the Bicol Region, face similar dangers.
